Gold update: These developments could move the price now

Gold price development

After the gold price had already started the new year with considerable momentum, the precious metal recorded eight more record days in February. Based on US futures trading, the all-time highs now stand at USD 2,963 and EUR 2,848 respectively. From a technical perspective, the price decline in the last week of February caused a certain cooling in a briefly overheated market.

What can happen now? And to say it straight away: the environment for a long-term continuation of the gold bull market could hardly be more ideal. They have even improved further in recent weeks, in an almost tragic way. But first things first.

Seasonal aspects

Statistically speaking, March is actually one of the weakest gold months of the year. If you go back to 1970, this month ranks second to last with an average price decline of 0.25%. However, seasonal aspects have hardly played a role in recent years. In each of the past four years, March has brought gold investors price gains.

Current market developments

Recently, too, short-term market activity has repeatedly been determined by unusual events. These include the massive physical movements of gold to the USA after institutional traders feared the introduction of import taxes on precious metals, resulting in sometimes considerable price differences between the gold exchanges in the USA, Europe and China.

Another important insight from the past few days: if politicians can't come up with anything constructive, they simply create new debt to bridge the structural economic problems. This is the easiest way to plug budget holes without asking voters to pay directly.

Massive deficit financing

The financial consequences of deficit spending generally only become apparent with a longer time lag. They manifest themselves in financial burdens in later periods (interest and redemption payments) and fuel creeping inflation. They also entail a considerable interest rate and debt restructuring risk, with the danger of state insolvency, as we have already experienced in the course of the euro crisis.

But this is the path the new German government wants to take. Sums of up to 900 billion euros have been circulating, which the SPD and CDU/CSU want to have approved as "special funds" for armaments/defense and infrastructure as quickly as possible.

A similar project is expected from European Union circles.

One thing is certain: the purchasing power of our money will be further eroded, which will sooner or later result in a continuously rising gold price.

US policy

In contrast, the US government is making an economically sensible attempt to contain the skewed national budget on the cost side. However, Trump's rigorous austerity policy and the import tariffs he has imposed risk having a short-term negative impact on the economy. The gold market was also strongly influenced by the new US policy until recently. The fear of tariffs on gold and other precious metals has led to unprecedented metal transfers to the United States since the end of last year.

The question of the whereabouts and use of the US gold reserves is also exciting. The US administration wants to have the American gold reserves audited, and there was at least talk of an inspection until recently. See also: The gold in Fort Knox. And there is an idea as to how the accounting revaluation of goldcould create financial leeway in the US budget. US gold reserves are currently valued at USD 42.22 per ounce on the Fed's balance sheet.

What happens to the monetary gold?

If it turns out that the US gold reserves are not available to the extent or in the quality claimed, this should not exactly harm the gold price. After all, the current price is also based on assumptions about the amount of gold available worldwide.

A revaluation of the gold reserves in the state's budget books would provide short-term financial leeway to cover new expenditure. But at the same time, the precious metal would once again be elevated to a monetary throne as a means of money creation, from which it was deliberately banished after the gold standard was abandoned in the early 1970s.

But such a measure would possibly provoke renewed discussions about a state gold sale. In Europe, for example, where the financial need is also great, as we can see from the latest negotiations on "special assets".

 Gold price forecasts by the banks

Let's take a look at the latest gold price forecasts from the major banks. According to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, gold has undergone an overdue correction due to profit-taking and increased market volatility. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains positive. Support levels are at 2,813 and 2,790 US dollars before a renewed rise towards 3,000 US dollars is expected.

ANZ also sees the recent decline as a result of profit-taking. US tariffs and falling inflationary pressure could weigh on market sentiment, but geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties should keep demand stable in the long term.

UBS is sticking to its gold forecast of USD 3,000 per ounce by the end of the year and even sees USD 3,200 in the risk scenario. Silver could rise to USD 38, supported by industrial demand.

J.P. Morgan forecasts a gold price of up to USD 3,000 for the fourth quarter of 2025. Gold remains in demand as an inflation hedge and safe haven, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties.

Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for 2025 to USD 3,300. The bank expects central bank purchases to remain high and markets to benefit from interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, if the Fed does not cut interest rates, gold could only rise to USD 3,060.

Chart technique

Let's take another look at the technical framework conditions. On Tuesday, the price of gold in US futures trading closed at USD 2,920 per ounce (April contract), equivalent to EUR 2,749. A setback last Friday to USD 2,848 was followed by a rapid recovery above the USD 2,850 mark. The next resistance zone is at 2,930 US dollars.

Sentiment has eased. This means that gold is no longer "overbought" from a 14-day perspective. However, the price recently remained 12% above the 200-day line, which illustrates the ongoing momentum.

In contrast, we saw a subdued development in the euro gold price until recently due to the significant appreciation of the euro. Important support levels here are at EUR 2,740 and EUR 2,700, while EUR 2,760 must be breached to reverse the short-term trend. Overall, the accelerated upward trend in gold since 2022 remains intact, so far without any signs of excessive speculative overheating.

Conclusion

Despite short-term setbacks, the gold price remains on a long-term upward trend. Seasonal patterns are playing an increasingly minor role, while geopolitical uncertainties and massive government debt continue to act as price drivers. The financial situation in the US and Europe in particular could have a lasting impact on the gold market - be it through a revaluation of state gold reserves or increasing fears of inflation. Bank forecasts also suggest that gold could continue to gain in value in the medium term. From a chart perspective, the situation remains stable, with important support and resistance levels likely to determine the next price trend.